So goes Biden, so goes Democrats’ electoral fortunes

Democrats needed a wakeup call – and the election results this week provided it.

In our American democracy – as fraught as it is – elections are the critical way that voters express their views on the state of the union. In the elections this week, voters did exactly that: a highly engaged public – which led to record off-year turnout – responded quite negatively to the party in power.

Elections are signals in the noise. When voters feel that a party has gone too far in one direction, or performed poorly in their leadership, voters send a signal – with their vote – for change.

In this age of negative partisanship, it’s easy to run as the opposition – especially when the party you’re opposing is unpopular. Rather than seeking to inspire voters around a cohesive and forward-looking vision, campaigns can rather effectively incite fear and anger toward the opposing party to gain power.

The ebb-and-flow that this causes in our politics has been well documented in recent election cycles.  

Just a year after the seismic political upheaval in 2008 – that ushered in Barack Obama and large Democratic majorities – Democrats lost elections across a swath of reliably Democratic states: places like New Jersey and Massachusetts. Democrats even went on to lose the Senate seat in Illinois previously held by Obama. The same happened after a very different political upheaval eight years later when, after sending Donald Trump to Washington with a Republican Congress, voters ousted Republicans in reliably the red states of Kentucky, Kansas, and Alabama.  

Ignoring this history to boost their own self-aggrandizing explanations, far too many pundits and prognosticators are presenting an overly myopic assessment of the problem Democrats faced. No, backlash to ‘critical race theory’ – entirely invented by the Republican media echo-chamber – did not cost Democrats the election. No, Terry McAuliffe – faults aside – did not run a distinctively flawed campaign. No, this is not a problem that’s unique to suburban voters.

This was a pronounced, and widespread, indictment of Democratic leadership.

Just look at the swing in Virginia since the 2020 election. If this was a suburban backlash against Democrats on education, you would expect to see disproportionate declines for Democrats in the suburbs. But what we see instead is a widespread, fairly uniform shift away from Democrats across the commonwealth: in big suburbs and small towns; in the Washington, DC collar counties all the way down through rural communities in southwest Virginia and across to the diverse Tidewater.

And the shift away from Democrats extends well beyond the borders of Virginia. In Virginia, there was a roughly 8-point swing towards the GOP since the 2020 election (from Biden +10 to McAuliffe -2). But the swing in New Jersey was twice as large: from Biden +16 last year the narrowest of wins for Phil Murphy.

Democrats lost ground everywhere. Had the midterms been held this week, Republicans would have easily taken back the House and Senate.

While there are countless factors that affect the outcome of any given race, micro analyzing any given factor misses the bigger signal in all of this: Joe Biden is really unpopular right now.  

In recent months, Democrats have tried (with some success) to simply ignore this reality – without any appreciation for the political implications, realized this week, that such unpopularity presents.

There is no way to spin this: Since July, Biden’s popularity has fallen significantly.

Before July, Biden was in a relatively healthy position. His approval rating was above 50 percent. More than half of voters (52 percent) were hopeful about the year ahead. The pandemic was still top of mind, but cases were on the decline. By a 2:1 margin, voters thought the U.S. was handling coronavirus well and thought Biden was primarily responsible for this success. There were strong headlines for the President about an impending bipartisan deal on infrastructure, record GDP growth, and a July 4th proclaimed end to the pandemic. Biden had a net-positive approval rating for his handling of the economy and, for the first time in more than a decade, less than half of voters thought the country was headed on the wrong track.

In the three months since, Democrats have been stuck in the mud, paralyzed by their own infighting.

While the Republican media eco-chamber ping ponged from one ‘crisis’ to another for which Biden was to ‘blame’ – the rise of Delta, the bungled exit from Afghanistan, the border, inflation, supply chain issues – Democrats bickered amongst themselves and let their actions be defined by a political press that was more interested in reporting their proposed topline spending figures than the ways in which Democrats’ legislative agenda would positively benefit everyday Americans. 

The effects have been devastating for Democrats. Biden’s job approval has tumbled to 42 percent, lower than any other modern president at this point in his presidency – with one important exception, Donald Trump. This summer, 44 percent of Americans thought the country was headed in the right direction. That optimism has collapsed. Today, just 27 percent feel we are on the right path.

This is a bit too simplistic, but when Ralph Northrup won Virginia in 2017 his vote share (53.9 percent) was roughly in line with Donald Trump’s disapproval rating (54.5 percent) nationally. This year, Glen Youngkin won Virginia with 50.7 percent. Biden’s current disapproval rating nationally: 50.7 percent.

So goes Biden, so goes Democrats’ electoral fortunes.

But all hope is not lost for Democrats – and there is clear path out of this disarray.  

Joe Biden needs to restrengthen his popularity. To do so, he needs Democrats in Congress to snap out of it and recognize that their intransigence has led to Biden’s approval decline – and will lead to their own electoral misfortune next year. Democrats simply cannot go into the midterms with a president whose approval rating in is the low 40s and expect anything less than a massive defeat at the ballot box.

Democrats need to get to work. The defeat this week should act as the catalyst needed to get the infrastructure and the Build Back Better legislation swiftly passed. Now is not the time for inaction. As it stands, a plurality of voters (42 percent) think this Congress has done less than usual – and they blame Democrats. Inaction has led a sizable majority of Americans (58 percent) to view Biden as a weak leader. Just 36 percent of Americans are optimistic about the next few years with Biden as President.

 Democrats simply cannot continue to let their slim majority be an excuse for inaction. In politics, as is in life, time is precious and priceless. The longer the spotlight is on Democratic inaction, the worse this gets. The longer Democrats bicker, the less time Democrats have to take their success story directly to voters; to counter the Republican media eco-chamber and communicate their legislative victories and the boost their legislation provides to everyday Americans.

Biden promised to build back better. Not demur and dither. Democrats must wake up and finally deliver.

The Rainbow Wave Arrived In 2018, And It Will Change Our Politics

I reflect with BuzzFeed on the record number of openly gay, lesbian, bisexual, and transgender people who were elected in the 2018 midterms, despite Republican efforts to turn back the clock.

This year, more openly gay, lesbian, bisexual, and transgender people were elected to office than in any previous election, showing continued progress even as Donald Trump and his administration work to curtail rights for LGBTQ Americans.

In an LGBTQ in America survey that my team at Whitman Insight Strategies conducted in 2018 in partnership with BuzzFeed News, we found LGBTQ Americans were especially energized this year, motivated by animus toward Donald Trump’s anti-equality agenda. A full 79% of LGBTQ Americans said the country was headed in the wrong direction, and 72% said the Trump administration was bad on LGBTQ issues. The survey found respondents were not just energized to vote but were donating to campaigns and political organizations, and even running for office themselves.

An excerpt of the article is below, and you can read the full piece here:  

These results, and the findings from the LGBTQ in America survey, suggest that Republicans continue to ignore LGBTQ voters at their own peril. Republicans are not reaching LGBTQ voters or speaking to issues that are important to them. In fact, their efforts at the state and federal levels to push anti-equality legislation have only further alienated this important (and engaged) community of voters. With growing ranks of LGBTQ leadership across America, Democrats are well-positioned to not only win strongly among LGBTQ voters moving forward but continue to mobilize this already engaged voter segment into action.

Does California Hold the Key to Progressive Success?

I recently wrote a piece with Sean McElwee and Will Jordan for The Nation, exploring California as something of the future of the Democratic Party. California offers an incubator of sorts for Democrats; a breeding ground for (1) for progressive policy, (2) for the next generation of democratic leaders and (3) the next Democratic coalition.

An excerpt of that article is below, and you can read the full piece here: 

California has a funny habit of anticipating national political trends. Celebrity chief executives with no previous political experience who ride name recognition and controversy to victory? Seen it once or twice before. A spate of deregulatory policy leading to exploitation and corruption, culminating in a crisis? California knows something about that. Immigration and shifting demographics that inspire a “whitelash,” and put anti-immigrant populists in power? Been there, done that.

But right now, after producing three Republican presidents, California is at the forefront of progressive policy. Few states have made the Affordable Care Act work as well as California, and none have done as much to tackle climate change. While East Coast states are reliably Democratic, few have had the sort of durable progressive power that Democrats have amassed on the West Coast. The progressive wing of the Democratic Party has made major gains in California, flooding the normally low-turnout party caucus elections, and California boasts progressive supermajorities in both chambers of the State Legislature. Compare that to New York, which has a group of Blue Dog Democrats (the Independent Democratic Caucus) who have entered into a power-sharing agreement with Republicans to give them control of the State Senate.

California does all this while electing very diverse representatives—helping out the US Congress in that regard. Of the 94 people of color in the US House, 21 come from California, including recent breakout star but longtime progressive stalwart Maxine Waters. So California accounts for 12 percent of representatives in the House, but 22 percent of people of color.

While California and other Western states represent a viable model of progressive policy, it is dramatically under-discussed in the media and underrepresented in our national political conversation. There has never been a Democratic presidential nominee from California—or any Western state for that matter. The last time any Western state was credibly represented in a Democratic primary was way back in 1992, when Jerry Brown ran against Bill Clinton.

Most progressives know the names Bill De Blasio and Rahm Emanuel, for better or worse—but what of Eric Garcetti, the mayor of Los Angeles? And most progressives have strong feelings about New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, but rarely discuss Jerry Brown, Kate Brown, or Jay Inslee. There is an oft-discussed “East Coast bias” in journalism and sports broadcasting, but frankly, the same holds true in American politics today.

Where do Democrats go from here? Look toward “Political Influencers” — who want them to stand up to Trump

Democrats have a new DNC Chair. So now what? 

Bottom line: Tom Perez and the new DNC team have their work cut out for them. But the strength and the fervor of the resistance is real, and has the potential to grow into a full-fledged movement.

To better understand the possibilities for movement-building and explore its implications, Sean McElwee and I tried to quantify just how influential progressives are feeling today, and what they see as their path forward.

The survey was conducted among 988 respondents identified as “Political Influencers.” In short, Political Influencers are hyperactive partisans who exhibit a high level of activism. They are involved in a number of political activities, from more traditional approaches to influencing (i.e., voting or signing a petition) to more committed activities (i.e., participating in a local community group or taking part in a demonstration). As their name implies, Political Influencers are active and outgoing, and pride themselves on being well-informed and up to date. Enabling their influence, this audience likes talking about politics and current affairs with friends, and doesn’t shy away from expressing opinions.

You can read the full article in Salon, but here are the key takeaways: 

1. There are signs that this effort is engaging people who haven’t been actively engaged in politics in the past.

It appears that resistance efforts are indeed drawing new blood into the “Influencer” circle, engaging progressives who haven’t always been as actively involved. Making sure these new Influencers feel like their voice is being heard will be critical. Equally important, there is a recognition among Political Influencers that for change to happen, it must be fought for at all levels of government, including at the state and local level.

2. Political Influencers play an important role in the strength and direction of the resistance effort moving forward. Right now, there is a crisis of confidence in the national party.

While Political Influencers are overwhelmingly planning to vote for and support Democrats heading into 2018, the party has some significant rebuilding ahead. These folks are motivated and taking action, but they don’t see identification with the party as a key way to ensure their voice is being heard. Moving forward, the party needs to ensure these Influencers feel it is speaking and acting in a way that reflects their own voices. Standing up against Trump is the surest way to do so.

3. Progressives need to avoid the missteps of the Tea Party, and right now, they are. But care must be taken to avoid the trap of ideological purity.

The Tea Party’s legislative success has been and remains muted, in part because of its insistence on ideological purity. While these findings suggest that ideological purity may not provide a similar challenge for the left, it is important to learn from the Tea Party’s mistakes.

4. Democrats need to portray themselves as a party that’s willing to fight, and rely on their state and local counterparts to organize resistance efforts.

Political Influencers are desperately seeking a national Democratic operation that acts as a bullhorn for their own voices to be heard. Right now, these Influencers don’t express confidence that the DNC represents their interests, and even fewer believe the party has strong leadership or is on a path toward victory. Bottom line: The work is cut out for this new team that takes the reins at the DNC. In the meantime, Political Influencers recognize the importance of state and local organizing efforts, and are involving themselves at this level. It’s here, at the grassroots, that the rebuilding effort will reap its greatest rewards.